Monday, March 23, 2020

Spain Coronavirus Death Rate Over the Last 2 Days Comparable to Italy's, 40% Addition to Usual Total Death Rate

By Eugene Volokh - March 23, 2020 at 10:52PM

According to Worldometers, Spain had 391 coronavirus deaths yesterday and 539 today (recall that it's tomorrow over there now). Italy's has averaged 668 over the last 4 days, 625 over the last 2. Since Spain's population is about 3/4 that of Italy, Spain's death rate has been pretty close to that Italy's.

Spain's death rate last year was 9.115/1000, which amounted to about 425,000 deaths per year (out of a population of 46.66 million), or 1165 deaths per day. This means that Spain's death rate over the last two days apparently increased by about 40% as a result of coronavirus.

Of course, keep in mind all the usual cautions about possible diagnosis error, reporting error, and the like; plus, while the coronavirus death rate may go up or may go down, the one thing it's not likely to do in the next several days is stay the same.


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