Monday, March 23, 2020

Spain Coronavirus Death Rate Over the Last 2 Days Comparable to Italy's, 40% Addition to Usual Total Death Rate

By Eugene Volokh - March 23, 2020 at 10:52PM

According to Worldometers, Spain had 391 coronavirus deaths yesterday and 539 today (recall that it's tomorrow over there now). Italy's has averaged 668 over the last 4 days, 625 over the last 2. Since Spain's population is about 3/4 that of Italy, Spain's death rate has been pretty close to that Italy's.

Spain's death rate last year was 9.115/1000, which amounted to about 425,000 deaths per year (out of a population of 46.66 million), or 1165 deaths per day. This means that Spain's death rate over the last two days apparently increased by about 40% as a result of coronavirus.

Of course, keep in mind all the usual cautions about possible diagnosis error, reporting error, and the like; plus, while the coronavirus death rate may go up or may go down, the one thing it's not likely to do in the next several days is stay the same.

from Reason Magazine Articles