Thursday, March 12, 2020

"The Number of Recoveries Continues to Rise Above Its Death Toll"

By Eugene Volokh - March 12, 2020 at 09:51PM

Newsweek writes: "While cases continue to soar in Italy, which has now reported more than 12,000 infections, the number of recoveries continues to rise above its death toll, with 1,045 recoveries versus around 800 deaths in the country."

Does that mean something that I'm missing? Of course the number of recoveries should eventually rise above the death toll, so long as the mortality rate is under 50% (and the evidence seems to suggest it's much lower than that).

Now at any particular time, the ratio may be sharply different, depending on factors such as how long it takes for those who recover to recover (and perhaps how one defines recovery), and how long it takes for those who die to die. But that right now in Italy the recoveries barely exceed the deaths strikes me as telling us very little; or am I mistaken?


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