Monday, May 4, 2020

Trump Administration Projects 200,000 American COVID-19 Deaths by June 1

By Ronald Bailey - May 04, 2020 at 01:40PM

"We're going to lose anywhere from 75-, 80- to 100,000 people," President Donald Trump said on Sunday during a Fox News COVID-19 town hall. That may be an underestimate, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) projections that have been leaked to The New York Times.

According to the leaked projections, daily U.S. deaths could rise from around 1,500 a day now to 3,000 by June 1, for a death total of 200,000 by the end of the month. The daily number of new COVID-19 infections would rise from 25,000 now to nearly 200,000 by then. Total confirmed cases currently stand at around 1.2 million and 70,000 deaths.

It is worth noting that the number of reported U.S. COVID-19 deaths have tended to be significantly higher than the CDC's projections.

These internal Trump administration projections are even more pessimistic than the projections from the machine learning model developed by independent researcher Youyang Gu and his colleagues. That model estimates that U.S. COVID-19 deaths will likely exceed 100,000 by June 1.

Let's hope that both of these forecasts will turn out to be badly wrong.

from Reason Magazine Articles